Cristina Kirchner, the main shareholder of the Frente de Todos, interrupted January 1 to publish a tweet in his honor. and the president Alberto Fernandez He directly traveled with a tiny entourage to be present at the inauguration acts and pomps. For different reasons, both believe that the return of Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva to power in Brazil can actually be a wink or a foretaste of history about their political destiny.
But, in truth, the Lula 3.0 model places both Argentine politicians quite far from the Brazilian experience. There are even obvious data and other more subtle ones that place the two more on the side of Jair Bolsonaro than of the worker leader who once again cried when he was sworn in for his third term. And whom Alberto Fernández praised by naming him “the Brazilian Perón”.
Lula spoke in two speeches he gave at the Brazilian Congress and at the Planalto Palace. In both instances, he did not spare the criticism against the outgoing administration, which he accused of embodying a dictatorship, dismantling the State, fascism, barbarism and even being responsible for a genocide, due to the number of Brazilians who died in the pandemic.
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These were words spoken in the thunderous absence of Bolsonaro, who preferred to get on a plane to Florida, United States, where he allowed himself to be photographed eating fried chicken and greeting sympathizers as occasional as they were appropriate. The outgoing president -as Cristina Kirchner did in December 2015- preferred to empty the act of transfer to seek, thus, to delegitimize the new president before his followers.
Bolsonaro despising his successor, and Lula announcing complaints so that judges take care of investigating his predecessor expose that polarization, far from moderating, is here to stay in a Brazil that is now torn between democracy and dictatorship, or between criminals and decent.
The South American giant thus joined a geography dominated by fragmentation and antagonism with an anomaly: Uruguay, the country that stood out when the current president Luis Lacalle (National Party) appeared together with his predecessors, José Mujica, from the Broad Front; and Julio María Sanguinetti (Colorado Party).
According to the Uruguayan president, with the presence of the three presidents he sought to show “our best traditions”, because the unity with which the policy is shown “speaks well of the country that we all want, without prejudice to the differences.”
Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández meet for artificial assimilation with Lula in the face of an undeniable aporia: the leader of the PT arrives at the Planalto proposing himself as the “change”, the new leaf that history offers to a country tormented, in his opinion, by a bad government of four years, where -he raised- abuses, deaths in pandemic, femicides and a regression in inequality levels multiplied.
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The difficulty for any proposal from the Frente de Todos is to demonstrate that the three previous years and the one that began this weekend, in reality, were not so bad and that Alberto or Cristina may even be the standard bearers of this change.
It then becomes clearer why the president has been making an effort in recent weeks to convince that the time lived, in reality, was not what most remember -with galloping inflation, a drop in the purchasing power of wages, poverty and parties in Olivos- but a government with an imperceptible success, if you will, asymptomatic.
He did it, without going any further, in an interview that C5N journalists Daniel Ballester and Juan Amorín gave him in Brasilia: “In the end, the Argentines are going to realize that they had a government that had to face two years of pandemic and two years with war and, even so, it was the only administration that will have achieved that for three consecutive years it managed to make the Argentine Gross Product grow, that created a million and a half jobs, that lowered unemployment, that fights against inflation and so that the distribution is more equitable.
“Argentines will know how to ponder all this effort. A government that has also made honesty a practice and that seems to me to be valued. Now that possible chats with incompatible businesses between State concessionaires with State officials in the city of Buenos Aires are known”.
Without his own fans or promoters of an unlikely candidacy, Alberto Fernández did not miss the opportunity, even in that interview, to renew the attack against the Supreme Court judges, although more precisely against the incumbent, Horacio Rosatti. There he also contrasts with Lula Da Silva, who not only praised the judges, but also acknowledged that they were the architects of guaranteeing fair elections, despite the fact that the onslaught of Bolsonaro’s hosts made Brazilian institutions tremble.
Cristina Kirchner, for her part, also finds it difficult to transmute the PT experience. It is that the vice president took a step that Lula never allowed himself: to give up before the Justice finally closed his path to being a candidate.
In the elections that ended with Bolsonaro president, the PT leader fought in the courts to the last breath to be a candidate. It was not until the judges prevented him from continuing that Lula “turned himself in.”
The vice president, on the other hand, publicly raised an argument that was more political than real: she launched the “proscription” as an epic that, in the procedures and laws, does not exist. Without a firm conviction -which is only specified with the “double agreement” that the intervention of the Cassation and the Court would grant- CFK does not have any formal impediment to compete in the elections that will be held between August and November.
In this context, the advance against the judges that Peronism is testing, which affects the democratic institutions in their foundations, became more acute after the sentence that the vice president received to six years in prison and perpetual disqualification, which she received for corruption in public works of Santa Cruz.
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It is a crime that a first instance court considered proven after dozens of lawyers, judges, prosecutors and experts intervened in the process – which was plagued with annulments and incidents promoted by the vice president’s lawyers.
While the government of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner appears in the first hours of the year to talk about Lula and the problems that politicians have with the judges, an alarming forecast appeared on the horizon of 2023, which contrasts with the optimistic projections that spill the ruling party.
In a report that she gave to journalist Margaret Brennan, from the CBS program “Face the Nation”, the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, outlined an overwhelming panorama of 2023: “It will be a difficult year, more difficult than the year we left behind . Why? Because the three big economies, the United States, the European Union and China, are slowing down simultaneously.
The official of Greek origin highlighted in that report that during the last three decades the emerging economies quadrupled their size dragged by the global locomotive that China meant. She generates a certain bitterness in these sayings, because since 2012, Argentina has suffered from a stagnation that defies the rules of gravity or common sense.
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The country governed by Cristina Kirchner, Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández saw with the ñata against the glass a party to which he was invited but was left out.
The importance of Kristalina Georgieva’s sayings lies in the fact that she is the face behind the counter to which Argentina must go in this election year to periodically ask for the renewal of maturities (or more simply, clemency). She is the authority for the application of a program that Kirchnerism has to tolerate after having failed to reject it in Congress. Cristina Kirchner knew how to interpret before anyone else that the agreement promoted by Martín Guzmán, in fact, established a co-government. In 2023 she will feel, with everything, its rigor.
Returning to the report with the prestigious American news channel that was broadcast when the year was just beginning, another extensive definition paints the risk that Argentina is facing, while politics discusses whether the Supreme Court rulings are open to debate or are respected:
“China is slowing down and could enter a recession and grow less than the world average. This has never happened before and means that it could drag down world economic activity instead of boosting it (…) this environment will also affect developing countries and emerging countries (NdR: like Argentina) because the interest rate rise in the United States and the appreciation of the dollar will affect its exports (…) this recession will be devastating for highly indebted countries”.
The first one who should be concerned is Sergio Massa, the minister who stabilized an economy that was in a tailspin due to internal intrigues and palace intrigues and whose political destiny is tied to inflation moderating to levels close to 3%, simultaneously with a salary recovery, activity growing and the Central Bank provided with all the necessary dollars. A very difficult carambola or a miracle.
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